What moves the gold price

The instruments that co-determine gold, ranked live from our own daily-returns series and weighted by mechanism, stability and practicality — not a frozen opinion. Most of what correlates tightest with gold does not drive it, so each row is tagged by causality. 10/10 live from data · as of 2026-07-25 05:57 UTC.

driver — moves the price expression — same trade, a confirmer confirmer — downstream of gold diagnostic — its divergence is the signal follower — gold leads it

#	Instrument	Type	Live corr (90d)	Weight	Why it sits here
1	US Dollar Index DX-Y.NYB	driver	-0.29	16.1%	Gold's dollar denominator plus the global-dollar factor — the one true driver that held its inverse sign through a regime built to break it. specifics & watch-out Specifics. ~58% euro-weighted, so it under-reads Asian dollar strength; futures-based and thin outside US hours. Watch-out. In a liquidation crisis gold and the dollar get bid together — the inverse link inverts exactly when you lean on it hardest.
2	Silver SI=F	expression	+0.84	15.5%	The tightest measured link in the complex, and clean (settles with gold on COMEX) — but a monetary-metal twin, not a driver. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Half gold's liquidity with an industrial load, so it overshoots gold both ways; the gold/silver ratio is the first tell a gold move is suspect. Watch-out. Central banks buy gold, not silver — the correlation sags exactly when the official-sector bid dominates.
3	Gold miners (GDX) GDX	confirmer	+0.75	12.8%	The most stable coupling in the study, but strictly downstream: miners discount gold, they don't set it. Reads institutional flow fast. specifics & watch-out Specifics. ~3x operational leverage to spot via AISC margins; its apparent 'lead' is a clock artifact (closes after the COMEX settle). Watch-out. In an equity selloff it trades as a stock, not gold — a divergence there is SPX beta, not gold information.
4	Platinum PL=F	diagnostic	+0.79	9.5%	Precious-complex beta without the central-bank bid — gold/platinum divergence separates monetary gold moves from broad-metal moves. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Roughly an order of magnitude thinner than gold; auto-catalyst and South-African supply shocks decouple it abruptly. Watch-out. A hot short-window correlation mean-reverts — don't extrapolate it.
5	US 10-year yield ^TNX	driver	-0.32	9.5%	The opportunity-cost channel — the cleanest structural mechanism on the board, even though the central-bank-buying regime has loosened the beta. specifics & watch-out Specifics. A NOMINAL proxy; prefer the 5-year (^FVX) or real TIPS. The link is episodic now, not dead — it crosses zero repeatedly. Watch-out. A rate rise is gold-bearish if hawkish-Fed, gold-bullish if inflation-expectations — the sign depends on the decomposition the headline hides.
6	Copper HG=F	driver	+0.61	9.2%	The industrial/China-growth leg. The copper/gold ratio is the reflation-vs-fear axis that reframes every other input. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Carries the China property/grid cycle; tariff-driven COMEX-over-LME premia distort the US contract vs the world price. Watch-out. When COMEX copper decouples on warehouse/tariff arbitrage, its gold correlation is logistics, not macro.
7	USD/JPY JPY=X	driver	-0.37	8.8%	The one FX pair adding beyond the dollar index: US real-yield transmission plus carry and the yen haven bid. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Carry unwinds (Aug-2024 style) hit gold the same day; still ~14% of DXY, so only the residual is new information. Watch-out. BoJ/MoF intervention and carry moves swing it violently with zero gold content.
8	VIX ^VIX	driver	-0.40	6.6%	The only risk-appetite axis, orthogonal to the dollar and rates — the cleanest separator of safe-haven from debasement buying. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Mostly noise below ~20; a currently negative sign means gold is rallying while vol falls — a debasement bid, not a fear bid. Watch-out. In liquidation-grade spikes gold is sold for margin before it's bought for safety — the naive reflex fails at the extremes.
9	USD/CHF CHF=X	expression	-0.41	6.4%	A second dollar vote admitted only for the franc's twin-haven overlap with gold. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Weakens as windows lengthen; SNB intervention is a franc-specific wildcard with zero gold content. Watch-out. Mostly double-counts the dollar factor — weight it only for the haven kicker.
10	AUD/USD AUDUSD=X	follower	+0.28	5.5%	The statistically honest satellite: weak but sign-stable, with a commodity-bloc/China leg partly outside the dollar cluster. specifics & watch-out Specifics. Information runs gold-to-AUD (gold leads it); a genuine terms-of-trade link via a gold-producing economy. Watch-out. Its risk-on character fights gold's haven bid in exactly the shocks that matter.

How this is built. Correlations recompute nightly from our own gold daily series (Pearson on daily returns, several windows). The rank blends the study's mechanism weight with live measured strength and cross-window sign-stability, so the board reorders if the relationships shift. The commentary is editorial and durable. Correlation is not causation — the causality tags say which is which. Analysis, not investment advice. See also methodology and the Central Bank Index for the biggest driver that is not a tradable instrument: official-sector demand.